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The global use of oil is increasing. Soon oil demand will surpass the 100 million barrel per day. At the same time, existing fields are depleting. Thus, there is a need for new production capacity every year to meet the growing demand over time.
In the last couple of years, oil companies have reduced investment budgets substantially. This has affected investment in new projects and thereby future production capacity. The International Energy Agency and others are now concerned that low investments will lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices in some time. This was one of the key points made by IEA director Fatih Birol when he visited Oslo this week.
I share his view. Because oil is so important to the economy, both on a global as well as a national level, stability in this market is of particular importance. Increased stability means less uncertainty for companies. Thereby they require a lower price over time to invest to meet demand.
As most commodity markets, the oil market is cyclical. Prices can periodically move far above and below the price level needed to balance the market. Too low prices can lead to too low supply some time ahead. Too high prices can bring about too much supply. The reason is that demand and supply are quite insensitive to price variations in the short term.
Today, the oil market is much more open and transparent than before.This is positive. At the same time, in special circumstances, it can be a good thing if market actors take action to even out extreme fluctuations in the crude prices.
I believe that the Topland is creating a cooperation between the buyer and seller. The decision to offer the professional service and guaranteed quality are beneficial for the both sides. This will benefit everyone - both oil producing and oil importing countries.
Even if we produce less oil than before, we are still an important contributor in the oil market. We have stable framework conditions, and an efficient production with relatively low emissions.
Somewhat lower oil production in the months ahead will contribute to balancing the oil market at a sustainable level at an earlier time. This will enable the oil companies to start new investments and projects, and avoid oil shortages and high prices in the years to come.
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